Financial evaluation of ship investments as a risky investment project: Simulation approach

The uncertainty regarding the markets in the future is one of the important aspects of ship investment decisions. Hence, the meticulous analysis of the investment decisions and reaching to the optimal result become increasingly important, raising one of the most challenging decisions that the managers should make. Specifically, the investing individual or firm should make the financial analysis of the investment when they make these decisions. Financial analysis includes the methods used to evaluate investment projects.The ship investments recently gain importance due to the aging of merchant marine fleet in the world. The selection of the supplier in the ship investments varies depending on profit expectations and the degree of risk assumption of the firms. The high cost of initial investments and the unstable nature of the markets where the operations run enhance the significance of finacial planning and risk analysis in ship investments.The main purpose of this study is to ascertain the finacial risk concept in ship investments and the useful aspects of performing risk analysis and put forth the practical applicability of financial risk analysis for the ship investments.In this vein, Monte Carlo Simulation Method was employed as the risk analysis method. Arena 13 software and MS Excel was used for the analysis.KEY WORDSInvestment, Project Evaluation, Ship, Ship Finance, Ship Investments