Effect of forecasting methods on the personnel decision making period of the administrators of health departments: An application in private hospitals in İzmir

Hospitals are organizations which the importance of work force comes into prominence. Work force is one of the most basic production factors in healthcare. For human health and healthcare cannot be substituted, healthcare services being very demanding sector and the services provided depend on the quality and the quantity of the work force, work force planning in hospitals is one of the most important human resources activities.Work force planning is to be done effectively for healthcare services to achieve their goals. An effective work force planning thus occurs with correct predictions. Various personnel forecasting techniques under two major topics, one of which is from the judgmental- heuristic view and the other from the quantitative- statistical view have been used to reach these predictions.In this study, it was investigated whether the health administrators made use of personnel forecasting methods in personnel decision- making period. It was also tried to be determined which forecasting method was the method which administrators gave importance. Effects of the demographic features of administrators on forecasting method selection were investigated.Having done a review of literature study regarding the work force planning, personnel forecasting methods and features of health institutions, determination of the situation was tried to be performed by conducting a survey using the results obtained.Key words: Hospital, work force planning, personal forecasting methods, hospital administrators, healthcare administrators, personnel decision making.