Assessment of risks during maritime transport of black tea using Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and rule-based Bayesian networks

Black tea, due to its high hygroscopic properties, is sensitive to fluctuations in environmental parameters during maritime transport, which can lead to serious deterioration in the product's chemical and sensory components. This study aims to fill a methodological gap in the literature by analyzing the potential risks that may arise during the maritime transport of black tea with a systematic approach. For this purpose, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and rule-based Bayesian Networks (BN) were integrated to quantitatively model complex causal relationships. Conditional probability tables for the BN model were developed using expert opinions and data from current literature. The model results indicated that the risk factors contributing most to the quality loss of black tea are, respectively, the inappropriateness of the in-container relative humidity (RF 4.3), failure to provide recommended ventilation conditions (RF 4.1), water leakages from structural damages of the container (RF 2.2), and the inappropriateness of external relative humidity levels (RF 4.2). The findings reveal the critical importance of preventive strategies such as active humidity management, regular inspection of container integrity, and real-time monitoring of environmental parameters in maritime transport operations. This approach presents a viable framework for risk-based logistics planning for hygroscopic food products.