Simulation of the potential impact of the carbon border adjustment mechanism on international electricity trade using an agent-based evolutionary stable international trade network model

The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a new policy instrument in the fight against global climate change, has the potential to trigger structural and strategic transformations in international trade flows. This study aims to examine the potential changes that the CBAM could create in electricity trade flows between the EU and other countries by employing a dynamic international trade network that incorporates alternative policy scenarios, different carbon price levels, countries' economic conditions, and national climate objectives. For this purpose, an agent-based evolutionary stable international trade network model was designed. In the model, trade relations between countries are represented by a directed and weighted network topology, and four strategic alternatives that countries may adopt in response to CBAM were constructed within the framework of evolutionary game theory. The social welfare functions determining the payoffs of strategic choices for each country were analytically solved, and a replicator–mutation dynamic was defined to represent the evolution of decision-making processes under dynamic and strategic interaction. In the final stage, a simulation analysis was conducted in R Studio using a dataset composed of 2024 international electricity trade flows, countries' emission intensities, and carbon price variables. The findings revealed that international electricity trade flows tended to decline by 30–50% overall after the implementation of the CBAM; however, countries' optimal strategy choices differed significantly depending on their emission intensity, trade dependency, and topological characteristics within the network. Furthermore, the model showed that regional carbon coalitions may emerge even in sub-networks that are not directly connected to the EU. For developing countries, a policy package that includes green investments that reduce carbon intensity in electricity generation, phased carbon price pathways or price corridors, and regional coordination mechanisms would substantially strengthen strategic adaptation capacity in the face of CBAM—thereby supporting both the sustainability of competitive advantage and the preservation of overall social welfare.