Substitution as a government strategy: Social assistance and radical rural movements in Brazil and India

This study delves into how governments strategically respond to social movements, with a specific focus on Brazil and India, and whether their strategies are effective. The study analyzes the Brazilian government's use of the flagship social assistance program, Bolsa Familia, and the Indian government's use of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act to contain rural unrest led by radical social movements like the Landless Workers' Movement and the Maoist Naxalites. The analysis introduces a third systematic government response, referred to as "substitution," which involves delivering government policy that addresses grievances but is not demanded by the movement. The study also examines how the impact of the substitution strategy on movements' mobilization depends on their claim-making. Using two novel databases and quasi-experimental empirical designs, the study finds that both governments aimed to use these programs as a counter-insurgency measure by substituting the land rights of the rural poor. However, this strategy led to the demobilization of rural mobilization in Brazil, while the Maoists were able to gain new mobilization advantages via the program. Additional qualitative analysis indicates that the Maoists effectively framed the program as a collective action demand, transforming substitution into "concession" and reversing the program's demobilizing impact. Overall, this study sheds light on the intricate relationship between social movements and government policies in two of the world's largest democracies.