Proposal for a disaster risk management model for historic settlements

The aim of this study is preparing a model for disaster risk management to be applied in historic settlements; where necessary precautions, legal and administrative arrangements, planning, and training, authorization and implementations are defined for those institutions who will implement these before disaster- preparation and mitigation phase, after disaster-intervention phase and after these during restoration phase; aiming to mitigate risks in the settlements. TAÇAY Disaster Risk Management Model for Historical Settlements has been prepared within thesis proposal, and it defines systems which will answer the requirements of phases of Disaster Continuum; mitigation, preparation, intervention and restoration phases of disaster risk management, against natural and man-made risk factors that would affect built artifacts and historical settlements where these types of buildings are frequent. The study is composed of six sections. The first section defines natural and man-made dangers and events and their degree of effect based on data collected worldwide, and for Turkey, determining the risks to be focused on. The second section gives the historical background of disaster management, investigates preparation methods of risk profiles, administrative programmes and schemes, training programmes, survey methods, database methods and systems in the world. This historical background was given in chronological order, and with event examples, analysing what changes had occurred and what rearrangements have been made in the disaster management systems after every event. This section also investigates the historical background of disaster management in Turkey, along with detailed research on legal and administrative changes in this fields, trainings, existing inventory system and studies about it, insurance of cultural heritage. Third section is the proposal of TAÇAY Disaster Risk Management Model for Historic Settlements. TAÇAY has been designed within the context of the thesis, by detecting requirements for disaster risk management and defects in current implementations, making use of the data given in the previous sections as well. This model is composed of four Modules; Establishment of Data Structures, Calculation of Risks, Management of Risks, and Verification and Sensitivity Analysis. In the fifth section, Model TAÇAY has been tried and verified in a site selected as a sample; Zeyrek World Heritage Protection Zone. Model TAÇAY has also produced some legal and administrative proposals which would enhance the application of the model, as its structure has been defined to do so. The last section discusses the results of the study. Model TAÇAY helps construction of the required mechanism in historic settlements. It regularly tests this mechanism, providing that both users learn the mechanism, and that through feedbacks, the mechanism constantly changes; enhancing itself and adapting to changes. Furthermore, the system that the model suggests helps collection of data through quick survey, during preparation phase pre disaster, and search and rescue phase during and straight after disaster. This data is used for risk and damage assessment and gradation. The Model has designed the strategic, tactical and operational factors required for disaster management in historic settlements through all three phases of disaster cycle. The model handles disaster management in accordance to the requirements of historic settlements, with all its phases. It suggests an integrated and systematic approach. It is presented within a flexible framework, so that it can be applied to different historic settlements, and it can be plugged-in to various disaster management systems. The model puts forward that damage and vulnerability assessments should be carried out with different parameters and criteria than that of new settlements, and suggests a new method for this. If the problem is handled in terms of Turkey, instead of a fragmented structure concerning historic settlements and cultural heritage where there are many unrelated organisations are involved, Model TAÇAY suggests a mechanism which can act independently, yet functions fully integrated within the valid disaster management system, and which functions in coordination and cooperation with the structures that forms this greater system.