Threat and underbalancing: A neoclassical realist analysis of Turkey's İran policy during Ahmedinejad period (2005-2013)

Balance of threat theory argues that states exhibit proper balancing behavior against threats from the international system. But the fact that states do not always exhibit this behavior, creates an anomaly in terms of structural realism. The neoclassical realist theory of underbalancing, on the other hand, argues that the fact that states exhibit underbalancing behavior against threats, rather than proper balancing behavior dictated by the international system, is due to internal factors. This thesis puts forward two sub-hypotheses in order to explain the above anomaly. In this context, the thesis argues that the effects of strategic culture and/or social cohesion variables may prevent states from exhibiting proper balancing behavior in line with systemic effects and may cause them to exhibit underbalancing behavior. This thesis will use the case study method to test the theory of underbalancing. From this point of view, Turkey's Iran policy during the Ahmadinejad-era stands out as the most likely case. The effects of variables are seen in Turkey's Iran policy during the Ahmadinejad-era.