Tüketim eylem halinde: Avrupa Birliği'nde enflasyon yayılmaları

Economists and policymakers focus on aggregate inflation measures, such as headline and core inflation. In this thesis, we argue that the inflation spillovers across consumer good sub-categories are as important as their direct contributions to the aggregate inflation measures. We identify and characterize the spillovers among 12 major consumption groups by applying Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness index methodology. We utilize the disaggregated Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices for the European Union member countries, 1996-2017. We estimate the within-country inflation connectedness across 12 groups statically using the data for the full-sample, and dynamically with the rolling-window estimation of 60 months. We observe resembling full-sample networks among 12 groups, which indicates similar inflationary connectedness due to similarities in consumption patterns. The countries experienced different inflationary behavior mostly due to national policy shocks. The rolling-window estimation enables us to trace the connectedness throughout the sample, and we are able to pinpoint the national policy implementation dates. We also estimate the within-group inflation connectedness across EU members. International connectedness increases for Alcohol&Tobacco, Recreational&Cultural Activities and Restaurants&Hotels, positively responding to policy harmonization and developments in openness to trade. We argue that harmonization efforts in policy-making will further increase the inflation connectedness across EU. Keywords: Consumer price inflation, Inflation connectedness, Spillovers, Vector autoregression, Forecast error variance decomposition, Network relations, European Union.