Panel data analysis of wage, productivity, inflation and employment relations in tourism industry

This thesis analyzes the dynamic and causal relationships between wages, productivity, inflation and employment in the tourism industry of EU member countries and Turkey within the scope of macroeconomic theories. The thesis consists of two sections. In the first section, the relationships between variables are evaluated within the framework of the existing literature. In the second section, the relationships between variables in the hospitality and transportation sectors of 9 EU member countries and Turkey are analyzed by using the heterogeneous dynamic panel data methods based on the annual data for the period 2010-2022. 4 different models for the accommodation sector and 3 different models designed for the transportation sector are estimated by the PMG estimator. The direction of causal relationships between variables are tested by carrying out the Granger causality tests within the scope of various macroeconomic theories. Empirical findings in the accommodation sector; there is a unidirectional causality relationship from wage and productivity to employment, unidirectional causality from productivity to wage, unidirectional causality from inflation to productivity, unidirectional causality from employment to inflation, and a bidirectional causality relationship between wage and inflation; in the transportation sector, it shows that there is a unidirectional causality relationship between productivity and inflation and wages, and a bidirectional causality relationship between inflation and productivity. The thesis contributes significantly to the existing literature by providing a new perspective by examining the relationships between variables in the accommodation and transportation sectors.