Causality analysis between GDP growth and air transport indicators in Turkey

In this research; causality analysis between gdp growth and air transport indicators in turkey for the period 1960-2019 will be analyzed. The extent of interaction between some airline data and GDP in Turkey is studied. stationary, johansen co-integration and granger causality tests were conducted to analyze the relations between GDP and air transport data (cargo quantity, number of passengers carried and oil prices) in Turkey. The unit measures of the variables obtained as measurement data in the analyzes; GDP and oil prices are in dollars, the number of passengers carried is in persons and the amount of cargo in tons. In the applied analyzes; the logarithms of the gross domestic product growth rate (GDP), the total number of passengers at the airports in Turkey (PAX), the amount of cargo carried in tons (cargo) and the average annual oil prices (OPEC) are used. Stability tests for examining the relationships between stationary variables in the design phase of the regression model used in the research; has been made. Therefore, with the help of the "Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test (ADF)", it was examined whether the variables in the data set used were stationary; It has been determined that all variables of the series have a unit root and therefore are not stationary. As a result of the johansen co-integration test conducted for this study; The calculated trace values and test statistics of the eigenvalue were calculated, it was decided that there were 2 cointegrated equations and it was determined that there were 2 long-term vector relationships between the variables. When the results of the granger causality test are examined; there is a causal relationship between the amount of cargo carried by the gross domestic product However, it has been determined that there is no causal relationship between the fuel price, the total number of passengers carried and the gross domestic product. As a result of this research; it is expected to make significant contributions to the literature empirically on the relationship between aviation and GDP growth in Turkey.