Determinants of Türkiye's virtual land foreign trade for agricultural products

The concept of virtual land refers to implicit land resources that are displaced between countries in the trade of agricultural products. Virtual land flows accompanying international trade in agricultural products can be calculated based on the trade volume and yield values of the products. Due to factors such as intense population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate change, arable land resources have become a scarce resource that is decreasing day by day on a global scale. Therefore, quantitative measurement of virtual land flows and identification of factors affecting these flows are important, especially for the effective management of limited arable land resources and ensuring sustainable food security. In this context, the thesis aims to reveal the factors affecting the virtual land flows in Turkey's trade in crops. For this purpose, first of all, virtual land export and import amounts in Turkey's crop trade were calculated based on primary and processed product groups. Then, the relationship between Turkey's virtual land trade balance and the variables of GDP, real effective exchange rate, annual total precipitation, arable land per capita, and total fertilizer use per hectare of arable land was examined with the ARDL bounds test approach from 1986 to 2019. During the examined period, Turkey's total virtual land export of crop products was approximately 93 million hectares, and the virtual land import amount was approximately 158 million hectares, making Turkey a net virtual land importer country. According to the analysis results, the factors most impacting Turkey's virtual land trade balance in crop products are total fertilizer use and arable land equipment per capita variables. While these variables affect the virtual land trade balance positively, the effect of other variables included in the analysis is negative. The inclusion of virtual land flows in agricultural and trade policies can only be made possible by quantitative measurement of these flows. However, to effectively manage agricultural lands and ensure sustainable food security, it is very important to comprehensively analyze virtual land flows in the context of economic, demographic, socio-economic, environmental, and ecological factors.