Geographic information system based multi-criteria analysis and mapping of forest fire risk in Turkey

This study was conducted to analyze the forest fire risk, which is an important part of decision support systems in combating forest fires. Forest fire risk refers to the possibility of combining of various criteria in an area and causing a forest fire to occur. Model to analyze forest fire risk; It was established to determine the criteria, to examine the relationships between the criteria and to create the equation to calculate the risk index. In this study, 11 criteria were taken into consideration for the calculation of forest fire risk: tree species, crown closure, development stage classes, slope, aspect, altitude, distance to roads, distance to settlements, distance to agricultural areas, distance to wetlands and distance to electricity transmission lines. Since the studies conducted so far on determining the criterion value ranges are based on expert opinion, unlike this method, GIS analyzes were performed first to determine the criterion value ranges and then field studies were conducted to check their accuracy. As a result, it has been determined that the value ranges in some criteria differ significantly from the results of other researchers. Contrary to previous studies, it has been concluded that the risk of forest fire decreases as the slope increases, the risk of forest fire decreases as the altitude increases, and the highest risk value range is 0-25 meters in the "distance to human activities" criterion. In addition, "distance to wetlands" criterion and "distance to electricity transmission lines" criterion were used for the first time in calculations. "Criterion weights" are handled more objectively by analyzing the long-term causes of forest fire and a national equation has been put forward to calculate the risk index under the influence of these evaluations. In order to test the applicability of the model, 4 forestry regional directorates (Amasya, Antalya, Muğla and Şanlıurfa), which are different in terms of climate, topography, vegetation and social characteristics, were selected, and forest fire risk was analyzed with original data and risk maps were created. When the accuracy of the calculations were tested by comparing these risk maps with the forest fires that occurred in 2020, an average of 87% of the forest fires in the pilot regions occurred in areas determined as "very high / high risk areas" as a result of GIS analysis. As a result, it has been determined that the points where fires can actually occur in the field are highly compatible with the findings obtained as a result of GIS analysis and field studies.