Optimization strategies for carbon sequestration in reducing industrial emissions in türki̇ye: A predictive afforestation model

Forests play a vital role in combating climate change due to their carbon sequestration capacities. In Turkey, one of the most effective strategies through which the private sector can contribute to climate goals is by increasing carbon sinks through afforestation. However, developing a strategy that yields the highest impact within limited budgets highlights the need for decision support systems. This study analyzes how the private sector in Turkey can optimize long-term afforestation investments under national conditions, considering a specific carbon sequestration target and annual budget constraints, based on the country's high afforestation potential. The aim is to reduce industrial emissions, convert the sequestered carbon into economic value through emission trading mechanisms, and alleviate the financial burden of afforestation on public institutions. An optimization model was developed using GAMS Studio based on the "Mixed-Integer Programming" approach and applied over a 49-year planning period. The model includes different tree species (Pinus brutia and Pinus pinaster), three land types (state forests, treasury lands, and privately-owned lands), three site quality classes (I, II, III), and various cost components. Additionally, parameters such as the annual carbon sequestration target, annual budget limit, afforestation costs, land constraints, and afforestation permit durations were incorporated into the model as limiting conditions. The model was tested under four different scenarios, and the results were compared in terms of cost-effectiveness, carbon sequestration efficiency, and the performance of species-land combinations. The results revealed the effects of varying budget levels, land ownership structures, and revenue-generating activities on the carbon storage success of afforestation projects. In particular, Scenario I offered the most balanced and feasible solution in terms of achieving the target with a short afforestation period and low cost, while scenarios involving privately-owned lands provided higher carbon sequestration and economic returns. On the other hand, reducing the annual afforestation budget was found to lead to higher long-term costs. These findings highlight the critical role of land ownership structure, income-budget models, and long-term planning in enabling the effective participation of the private sector in afforestation projects. Based on these results, recommendations were provided at the levels of planning, policy, implementation, and legislation.