Agricultural support policies and agricultural production relation in türkiye

Agriculture, a strategic sector that is central to food security, sustainable development and agricultural employment, is also at the center of social and economic policies of states. The fact that agriculture is at the center of both social and economic policies brings support to the forefront. In this context, this study aims to analyze the relationship between agricultural support payments made within the scope of agricultural support policies and agricultural production for the period 2006:Q1-2024:Q4 in Türkiye. In the study, Fourier-based methods are used in order to analyze the effect of seasonal changes on agricultural production more clearly. According to the results of the Fourier Shin cointegration test conducted to examine the cointegration relationship between the variables, it is concluded that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. According to the Fourier FMOLS results for long-run coefficient estimation, a 1% increase in agricultural support payments decreased agricultural production by 0.186 units. Moreover, the findings of the study showed that an increase in the number of tractors and harvesters as well as agricultural employment had a positive effect on agricultural production, which was realized as 1.234 and 0.040, respectively. On the other hand, a one unit increase in the unemployment rate decreased agricultural production by 0.246 units. The Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test revealed that there is bidirectional causality between agricultural employment and agricultural production as well as unidirectional causality from agricultural support payments, inflation and unemployment indicators to agricultural production. The results suggest that the current agricultural support policies in Türkiye are insufficient to incentivize production and therefore, support should be primarily production-oriented. Moreover, considering the positive effects of agricultural employment and mechanization on production, it can be stated that policies and reforms that will ensure the efficient use of labor in agriculture and encourage increased investments in agricultural mechanization are a requirement.