Urban growth si̇mulation of Afyonkarahi̇sar

Rapid growth in world population and incorrect land-use practices on natural resources has become a global problem. The basis of countries' economic development is directly related to the use of natural resources. In addition, natural resources have dynamic (variable) properties; therefore, they should constantly be monitored. Remote sensing has been an essential tool for the analysis of land management, environmental modeling, variable analysis, etc. In addition to retrospective data analysis of cities, to be able to direct future growth based on environmental conditions and to bring under control will be useful without a doubt. Therefore, a pixel-based urban growth model, SLEUTH, has been used in this study. The main objective of this study shows the simulation of the change in urban growth of Afyonkarahisar until 2030 with SLEUTH model, a cellular automation model. For this purpose, two different growth scenarios have been developed: (1) The current growth does not provide for high conservation in areas which are environmentally significant, (2) whereas areas like Agriculture, Forestry, Rangeland are put under protection with controlled growth. As a result of the study, with the current growth scenario, urban development from 2011 to 2030 will increase by 3115 hectares, and it is seen that 2300 hectares of pasture areas will be destroyed with this increase. It is found that 2000 ha of natural areas can be protected from urbanization and the wrong land use of the city's natural resources having social and economic importance can be avoided with the controlled growth scenario. Key Words: Urban Modelling; SLEUTH Model; Simulation; Remote Sensing 2014, IX + 56 pages