The value of HAPS to predict short term prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis

One of the causes of acute abdominal pain is acute pancreatitis, which early diagnosis and treatment is very important. Patients who were diagnosed, 80% episodes of acute pancreatitis are mild and heal without serious morbidity, while the remaining 20% of patients develop severe disease, local and systemic complications occur with a high rate of morbidity and mortality. The average mortality rate in patients with acute pancreatitis is 5%. In this study, patients diagnosed in the emergency department with acute pancreatitis, investigated the value of HAPS to predict a poor prognosis in the early stage. In this retrospective study, all adults over 16 years without trauma between 15.06.2010 to 01.01.2006 in Akdeniz University Hospital with the diagnosis of acute pancreatitis were examined. Existence of any of the events, intensive care admission or longer than the 5 (five) days of hospitalization or death was considered a poor prognosis. The demographic characteristics of patients, the value of HAPS and prognosis were calculated. 144 patients with the definitive diagnosis of acute pancreatitis, were included in the study area. 69 patients (47.9%) were male and 75 (52.1%) were female. The mean age of patients was 58.7 and the median calculated as 61. The rate of biliary pancreatitis in females was 34.7% and this ratio was found to be 27.1% in males. 14 of 144 patients hospitalized developed intensive care requirement, only 5 of these patients died, while in an inpatient 3 patients hospital death was found. 59% of patients with at least one of the poor prognostic indicators had a positive HAPS score. The relationship between HAPS and predicting the course of pancreatitis were significant (p = 0.013). However, considering correlation between poor prognosis and HAPS, the odds ratio of 2.3 (95% CI 1.18 to 4.52) and sensitivity of 58% and spesifity of 62% was detected. As a result, HAPS is a scoring system viewed from a fast and easy parameters. However, predicting a poor prognosis is not the desired level of specificity and sensitivity. Therefore, in patients with acute pancreatitis remains a need to evaluate other scoring systems.