Patient demand forecasting with the arima model: The example of Bingöl Oral and Dental Health Center

Health plays a vital role as one of the most basic necessities of human life. Good health enables individuals to live their lives, to work productively and to contribute to the economy. It also positively affects a number of areas such as education, quality of life, social relations and social stability. Health ensures the development and sustainability of societies while supporting individuals to realize their potential. The ability to meet people's health needs in a timely manner; It is important to provide the necessary materials on time and to plan the availability of sufficient number of health personnel in order to meet the health needs. For this reason, making forward-looking forecasts by making accurate analyzes is one of the steps that can be taken to develop and improve health needs and to respond to demands. Especially thanks to the researches made with time series, forward-looking estimations can be made by using different methods. This study was carried out using the Box-Jenkins method, that is, the ARIMA model, by applying it to the data of the 6-year patient numbers coming to Bingöl Oral and Dental Health Center. The results were obtained by using the Minitab 21 Package program for the analysis. It was observed that the results of the correlogram and Q statistics test performed using the Minitab 21 program, provided the stationarity of the series after the first difference applied to the patient data. Thus, the ARIMA(1,1,1) model was determined as the most suitable model. The time series analysis has been an important resource for business activities such as supplying materials, planning doctors' leave, and recruiting needed personnel. In line with the results obtained in this study, it will be possible to make more accurate and efficient decisions in the supply of materials needed by the hospital, the planning of doctors' leave and the recruitment of personnel. This will help the business to be managed more effectively. As a result, it can be stated that the time series analysis is an important tool that supports the activities of the hospital.