Assessing regime survivability during civil wars: A comparative analysis of the Russian (1917-22) and the Spanish (1936-39) civil wars

Interwar Europe witnessed numerous civil wars that tested the resilience and survivability of various political regimes. Two notable instances of this phenomenon were the Russian Civil War, which ensued after the Bolshevik seizure of power in Russia in 1917, and the Spanish Civil War, which erupted in 1936 between the Republicans and the Nationalist factions. These revolutionary changes in Spain and Russia were met with opposition from conservative factions within the military and society, who aimed to counter these transformative events. While the Bolshevik regime in Russia emerged victorious over counterrevolutionary forces and served as a successful case study in regime survivability, the Spanish Republicans were unable to achieve a similar result, and instead the insurgent forces were victorious in overthrowing the Republican regime. The divergence in outcomes observed between these cases, despite their initial similarities, warrants careful examination to better understand the factors and mechanisms that contribute to a regime's increased likelihood of survival during such conflicts. Therefore, this study seeks to shed light on the connections between three analytic variables—"Party Cohesion," "Support of Professional Military," and "Mobilizing Social Support"— to come at compelling results concerning this crucial phenomenon. It appears that the Bolsheviks in Russia and the Nationalists in Spain were successful in emerging victorious from their respective conflicts with a combination of factors including their having a higher party unity, operationalized with their administrative cohesion and charismatic features of their leaders, a stronger support from the professional army corps, measured with the available data regarding the distribution of officers to the belligerent factions, and their successfully mobilizing social support, apparent with both the national and international mobilization of a more robust support for their campaigns.