European Union budget and Turkey`s potantial effects union budget

ABSTRACTThis thesis is focused on the historical development process of European Union budget,as well as Turkey?s potential effects on it through its membership accession covering bothpre- and post-membership scenarios. EU?s budgetary dynamics have continuously followedan expansionary path since the very days that the Union was founded, while weights ofdifferent articles making up the budget were also changed in time thanks to economicdevelopment of the Union, as well as its expansion strategies and global conditions that led toeconomic changes. Turkey has affected and will probably affect EU?s budget parameters dueto its agricultural and economic structure, as well as being economically backward relativelyin addition to the large proportion of rural population getting on by agricultural activities.Different historical perspectives embedded within the minds of Turks and EU countries?citizens, also lead to difficulties in Turkey?s supposedly economic, social and culturalunification process with the EU. These parameters in turn cause a variety of concerns andcriticisms pertaining to Turkey?s EU membership accession process, both from popular andacademic or economic points of views. In this respect, positive and negative potential effectsof Turkey?s EU membership process have in this dissertation been overviewed with data athand by end-2004, while possible scenarios that might be realized along 2004 - 2014 werehandled based on the same data. In the mentioned forecast attempt, two different scenarios,one from negative and the other from positive expectations? side were applied on past andexpected future data. The results were in line with yet rare similar studies, and optimistscenario based on positive economic expectations led to more significant and probableoutcomes, signaling Turkey?s EU membership would probably not add so much weight on thebudgetary dynamics of the Union.