The effect of banking loans on tax revenues

The aim of this thesis is to perform an empirical analysis of the effects of bank loans on tax revenues between 2004-2018 in Turkey using the monthly data using the impulse-response functions method obtained from the VAR model. Considering various studies on the factors affecting tax revenues in the world and in Turkey; In some of these studies, the relationship between tax revenues and various macroeconomic variables was examined, while the effects of various macroeconomic variables on tax revenues were investigated in others. However, in these studies, it was observed that the interaction between bank loans and tax revenues was ignored. There are not many studies in the literature on the interaction of bank loans, which also represent the financial sector, with tax revenues. In the first part of the thesis, social, cultural, environmental and economic factors that determine tax revenues are identified. In the second part of the thesis, the place of bank loans in the banking sector, the functioning of monetary transmission mechanisms, primarily the credit channel are mentioned. In the third part of the thesis, the tax liabilities in the banking sector are mentioned. In the fourth part of the thesis, the econometric methodology to be used in the study is explained. In the empirical analysis, three sub-models were established under the model that includes four main models and individual loans. REK reacted to the shock given to total bank loans by decreasing, while interest rates and inflation were increasing. When shocks are given to individual loans, it is determined that inflation responds to a decrease and the industrial production index to an increase. The shock given to individual loans affected the inflation in a decreasing direction, while the industrial production index and indirect tax revenues increased. It has been determined that the shock given to individual loans reacts in the direction of a decrease in inflation and an increase in the industrial production index. REK reacted to the shock given to commercial loans in the direction of decrease, interest rates and inflation in the direction of increase. The shock to agricultural loans reacted to an increase in total tax revenues. Thus, it has been determined that bank loans are one of the factors affecting tax revenues.