Beyond first glance: Exploring the impact of speed and size in the initial deployments of United Nations peacekeeping operations

In conflict-affected regions, international peacekeeping holds significant importance in alleviating violence and fostering lasting peace. This dissertation explores how the speed, size, and composition of initial deployments of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping operations impact violence and the duration of peace. The initial deployment phase is crucial as it sets the foundation for the entire mission, shaping its trajectory and potential results. This phase plays a pivotal role in shaping the views and perceptions of local populations regarding the international community's dedication to resolving the conflict and the legitimacy of the peacekeeping forces. These perceptions significantly impact the mission's effectiveness in addressing conflict dynamics and supporting peace processes. The theoretical framework of the dissertation is built on the speed and size components of initial deployments and emphasizes the crucial role of swift and substantial initial deployment. Theoretically, a fast and larger initial deployment enables seizing swift opportunities for intervention and enhances the credibility and legitimacy of the peacekeeping mission among the local population. These two mechanisms consequentially lead to prolonged peace and reduced battlefield violence. The dissertation proposes that fast and sizeable initial deployments contribute to reduced violence and longer-lasting peace. Swift initial deployments build trust and avert a possible detrimental perception of weakness by the local population. In practical terms, by quickly establishing a physical presence and building relationships with the parties involved, peacekeeping forces can deter violence, gather essential information, and prevent power vacuums. According to the rationalist bargaining model, the size and composition of peacekeeping operations are crucial factors in determining the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping missions. Larger missions with more resources, capabilities, and legitimacy are better equipped to have a greater capacity to deter conflicts, overcome commitment issues, and facilitate information-sharing between conflicting parties. By deploying a tailored personnel composition, peacekeeping missions can reduce the risk of peace failure and contribute to overall success. By filling a critical gap in the existing literature, the dissertation utilizes newly collected global data for 55 UN peacekeeping operations over 28 years and adopts a comprehensive perspective that disaggregates the phases of deployment and the personnel types. The dissertation allows for a nuanced evaluation of peacekeeping effectiveness and takes a systematic quantitative approach by employing survival analysis and negative-binomial regression. The findings have significant theoretical and practical implications for policymakers, practitioners, and scholars, providing valuable insights into the key determinants that inform future UN operations, improve their efficiency, and enhance the overall impact of peacekeeping efforts. The dissertation empirically demonstrates that prompt initial deployments lead to reduced violence and extended periods of negative peace. However, longer time gaps between suggesting and adopting a UN Security Council resolution decrease the probability of a return to war, suggesting additional time in preparation allows for comprehensive conflict analysis and preparation. Additionally, substantial initial deployments can prolong negative peace duration. The composition of the initial deployment also plays a role. An increase in troop personnel is linked to a decrease in the duration of peace, whereas more police or military observer personnel reduce the risk of peace failure. However, the findings underscore the importance of promptly deploying troops to minimize violence and bolster the peace process. The dissertation underscores the crucial role of timely and substantial initial deployments in enhancing the legitimacy and effectiveness of peacekeeping operations for reducing violence and extending the duration of peace.