Determining risk of Type 2 Diabetes in population aged 45-74 in bigadic

The aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine risk of Type 2 diabetes using Finnish diabetes risk score and to determine associated factors of high Type 2 diabetes risk in individuals aged between 45 to 74 in Bigadic province. We also aimed to evaluate the validity of the Finnish diabetes risk score in individuals with newly-diagnosed Type 2 diabetes. The study group included 509 individuals sampled from a population of 4.425 individuals aged from 45 to 74 in Bigadic province. Cluster sampling method was used. High risk of Type 2 diabetes according to the Finnish diabetes risk score and existence of diabetes were the dependent variables. Finnish diabetes risk score consist of eight questions was used in this study and total score of 15 and above was defined as ?High risk?. Measurements of random blood glucose and HbA1c level were conducted for diabetes diagnosis in the study. 2010 American Diabetes Association (ADA) diagnosis criteria were used in the evaluation. Chi-Square, independent groups t test and logistic regression analysis were used in the analysis. Sensitivity, specificity, Positive Predictive Value (PPV) and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) were calculated in evaluating the validity of the score and ROC curve was drawn. The budget of the study was supported by the Scientific Research Projects of Dokuz Eylül University (Project no: 201194). In total 28.0% of the study group was at high risk of Type 2 diabetes. Risk of Type 2 diabetes was 2.25 fold higher (95% CI:1.14-4.44) in women, 2.46 fold higher (95% CI:1.33-4.53) in those who have chronic diseases. 1 mm/Hg increase in Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP) caused a 1.03 fold increase (95% CI:1.01-1.05) in the risk of Type 2 diabetes. When the cut-off point was taken 15 and above score?s sensitivity was 72.4%, specificity was 76.0%, PPV was 21.4%, NPV was 96.8%. The area under the ROC curve for newly-diagnosed Type 2 diabetes was 0.84 (95% CI:0.78-0.89), (p<0.001). In conclusion the risk of Type 2 diabetes was high and the Finnish diabetes risk score was a good score in predicting newly-diagnosed Type 2 diabetes in the Bigadic population. The Finnish diabetes risk score could be used in primary health care centers in Turkey, detection of individuals at risk of Type 2 diabetes, monitoring of those who are at risk of Type 2 diabetes and for preventing diabetes in those who are at risk of Type 2 diabetes and general population must be provided planning of interventions. Key words: Type 2 diabetes, Risk, Diabetes risk score.