Bulanık-analitik hiyerarşi sürecini kullanarak İstanbul Boğazı'nda deniz kazaları risk analizi

Turkish Straits consist of the Istanbul Strait, Canakkale Strait and Sea of Marmara and is the only door which is opened to international waters for vessels which transport on the Black Sea. More than 90 percent of all products and raw materials are transported by maritime transportation and the Turkish Straits is very significant for international maritime transportation. The Strait has also a niche significance for the Black Sea bordering states (Ukraine, Russia, Bulgaria, Romania and Georgia). The strait is 30 km and it is the narrowest international waterway, which connects the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara thereby Canakkale, Aegean Sea and Mediterranean Sea. Its geographical position and formation, heavy population, historical buildings around it, strong currents and winds are some risks for sea transportation in this strait. There always have the possibility of unpredictable catastrophes such as a collision, grounding, explosion and etc. in this region. Reflections of such unwanted incidents might be very costly for economical, political, environmental and safety concerns. In the past, extremely serious maritime accidents and explosions have occurred on the Istanbul Strait. However, there are limited academic studies regarding to analytical and systematical risk identification and determination of risk levels. In this study, pre-defined risk factors of the Istanbul Strait are explained and numerical weights of each risk are determined by using Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (F-AHP) method after conducting an expert consultation. The novelty of this study is that we consider the expert consultations by asking pilots, academicians and VTS operators of the Istanbul Strait who know this region better than anyone else. F-AHP method including the expert prioritization and consistency check is used to analyze the data. The results and discussion are expected to guide the representatives minimizing the probable risks before they occur.