A software predicting upper level icing potential by fuzzy set theory

In this thesis, concerning with the icing phonemenon which is the most serious weather condition for aviation, it is aimed that to provide the forecast for icing potential in the atmosphere which is not provided at the moment. It is intended to use the predicted data which is generated by a new method for Turkey operationally in flight briefings and flight route meteorological reports. The system which is explained detailed in this thesis generates predictions on icing potential for the next 24 hours. The domain for these predictions is Turkey with 7 km resolution and these predictions include location, elevation and time information. The parameters which are needed to be known as inputs are gathered from the outputs of a numerical weather prediction model. These input parameters are evaluated by a fuzzy system which contains fuzzy sets and fuzzy rules and the output of icing potential prediction is generated with location, elevation and time information. System outputs are analyzed and compared with the real-time observation values for verification. After verification process it is seemed that these outputs can be used for operational meteorology. Key Words : Fuzzy set theory, fuzzy inference system, upper level icing potential, icing forecast