Modeling and management of flood risks induced by climate change in Yildirim district, Bursa

This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on flood risk in the Yıldırım district of Bursa, Turkey. Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of extreme weather events globally, making effective water management and disaster mitigation strategies increasingly important. Due to its topographic structure and rapid urbanization, Yıldırım is particularly vulnerable to flooding. In this study, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), QGIS, and analytical decision-making methods were utilized to model flood risk and propose mitigation strategies. Hydrological and geomorphological parameters such as precipitation, slope, soil characteristics, and land use were analyzed. Flood risk maps were generated using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP). Additionally, future flood potential was assessed based on climate projections under the IPCC's RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The results reveal that climate change significantly increases flood risk, especially in areas near stream beds. It was also found that the existing drainage infrastructure lacks the capacity to cope with these projected changes. The study highlights the need for both structural measures and non-structural approaches, including early warning systems and sustainable land use planning, to effectively manage future flood risks.