Preparing thaumetopoea wilkinsoni susseptibility map using gis-based multi criteria decision analysis

This study was carried out in Kahramanmaraş Regional Directorate of Forestry, Gaziantep Forest Enterprise, Nurdağı Forest Planning Unit. It is aimed to prepare pine processionary moth (PPM) susceptibility maps of the study area with the help of multi-criteria decision-making techniques. With the help of fieldwork and Forest Pest Control Projects, stands damaged by PPM in the study area were identified. Tree species, crown closure, development stage, elevation, slope, aspect, annual average temperature, annual average solar radiation, and annual average precipitation parameters were used to create the PPM susceptibility maps. PPM susceptibility maps were arranged according to the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Frequency Ratio Method (FRM). The accuracy of PPM susceptibility maps prepared according to AHP and FRM models was tested with Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. According to both models, the most effective parameter in creating PPM susceptibility maps was determined as annual average precipitation. According to the AHP model, 73% of the stands had PPM damage, and according to the FRM model, 68% of the stands with PPM damage were detected in the high and very high sensitivity categories. AUC values for AHP and FRM models were calculated as 0.835 and 0.830, respectively. Among the models, it was determined that AHP gave more accurate results than FRM. According to these results, the PPM susceptibility maps created with AHP and FRM models produce reliable results.