The effect of climate change on regulatory ecosystem services at the scale of environmental plan scale: Kırklareli example

In this study, within the scope of the current and potential effects of climate change, possible changes that may occur in regulatory ecosystem services that provide direct or indirect positive effects on the climate are discussed for the future within scenarios based on past and present situations. In this context, firstly the current status of climate parameters (1980-2020) and then the future status (2020-2040) were addressed within the scope of SSP2-4.5 and SSP8-8.5 scenarios. In the studies on LULC and regulatory ecosystem services, firstly the past-present (2000-2021) status and then the future (2040) status were determined and mapping studies were carried out. When the results obtained for climate parameters were compared with today's data, it was determined that temperatures showed an increasing trend and precipitation showed a decreasing trend in both scenarios. In the analyzes for LULC, it was determined that the highest increase between 2000-2021 was in the forest class and the highest decrease was in the agricultural class. The evaluations for the future LULC were addressed within the scope of 3 scenarios. The regulatory ecosystem service potential was determined and mapped based on expert opinion through the obtained LULC maps. According to the results obtained, the areas with very high regulatory ecosystem service potential showed the highest increase within the scope of the scenario based on landscape sensitivity. In the last section, considering the fact that regulatory ecosystem services, climate change and LULC concepts are closely related; regional recommendations were developed to increase the regulatory ecosystem service potential provided by LULC classes in line with the data obtained for the study area.