Evaluation of China's increasing revisionist policies in the South China Sea in the context of Asean-China relations

The South China Sea (SCS) holds strategic importance due to its economic, political, and security implications for the littoral states. The region's vast energy reserves, rich fisheries, and maritime routes that accommodate a significant portion of global trade make the SCS critical on both regional and global levels. The inability to resolve disputes over the sovereignty of islands within the SCS through international legal mechanisms continues to provoke political crises among the claimant states. Although not a littoral actor, the United States, Japan, and other external powers have become involved in the dispute due to their national interests, often opposing China's increasingly assertive sovereignty claims—driven by its growing military and economic power. This, in turn, compels China to employ various foreign policy tools to pursue a resolution favorable to its interests. The primary aim of this study is to investigate why, despite increasing interdependence between China and ASEAN member states, the sovereignty dispute over the SCS has not been resolved peacefully. On the contrary, China has adopted a more revisionist stance that also involves military practices. Its refusal to abandon historical sovereignty claims based on the "Nine-Dash Line," its denial of fishing rights to other claimant states, and its militarized artificial island constructions in the region are key indicators of this revisionist policy. These developments have caused significant political and diplomatic tensions with ASEAN countries. However, China's deepening economic influence over ASEAN-through investments, trade, and credit mechanisms-has led these states to adopt more cautious and limited responses to Chinese assertiveness. The main argument of this study is that despite growing economic and political interdependence with ASEAN, China continues to pursue a revisionist policy in the SCS. Contrary to neoliberal expectations, this attitude is better explained by neorealist assumptions that emphasize relative gains, the pursuit of power, security concerns, and the desire for regional hegemony. From this perspective, China does not see interdependence as an obstacle to its policies, but rather as a strategic tool to reinforce them. It strategically utilizes economic leverage to prevent ASEAN states from forming a unified stance or taking strong countermeasures. The theoretical and empirical gap in the literature on this subject constitutes the main motivation for research. Conducted within the discipline of International Relations, this study is framed around the interdependence approach. A qualitative research methodology has been adopted. In addition to an extensive literature review, three semi-structured interviews with academic experts were conducted during the preparatory phase of the research to deepen conceptual understanding. Although these interviews were not used as direct primary data in the thesis, they served as background for enhancing the author's analytical perspective. The findings indicate that China's revisionist policies in the SCS have destabilized the power balance in ASEAN-China relations, created regional security risks, and revealed the institutional incapacity of ASEAN to effectively manage the crisis. Nevertheless, the continuous expansion of economic relations sustains a limited potential for cooperation. This suggests that interdependence alone is not sufficient to mitigate conflict, and that economic integration and security dynamics operate through distinct and often opposing mechanisms.