Modeling the future of urban growth using geographic information system: The case of Konya

The rapid urbanization that has emerged since the middle of the 21st century is still continuing today. The rapid increase in the population in the cities increases the area requirement of the cities and this situation causes the growth of the cities. Growing cities cause many infrastructure problems, environmental problems, and even economic problems. City administrators respond to these problems with various political arrangements. However, these arrangements, which are not sufficient alone, should be managed together with new technologies. For this reason, the need for urban growth models for sustainable city management emerged. City managers, land use, public investment location, protection of ecological balance, etc. Urban growth models that give predictions about the situations will be very useful in designing the cities of the future. This thesis was carried out with the aim of examining the effect of the new link road, which is a major public investment to be made in Konya, on urban growth. The study will be an important example in terms of seeing the future effects of public investments in a concrete way. In this study, The effects of the link road project on urban growth were tried to be determined by using two automaton models, the SLEUTH model, and the Agent-Based Model. According to the target year of 2043 determined in the Environmental Plan of the city, the future city of Konya and its settlement area have been estimated according to six scenarios designed separately in each model. According to these scenarios, both methods have different spatial predictions. The similarities and differences of these predictions are revealed. The SLEUTH model evaluated the physical change of the city very objectively. On the other hand, the Agent-Based Model (ABM), subjectively evaluated the change in the city by including human behaviors in the model. According to the ABM model, the SLEUTH model has determined the impact of the link road and highways on urban growth more in scenarios where pastures and agricultural areas are opened to settlement more. In the scenarios in which the link road is included in the model in ETM, it has been observed that the future areal values are higher than the SLEUTH model. In both scenarios, it has been determined that urban growth will be much higher in scenarios where there is no Environmental Plan. As a result, it has been concluded that in the scenarios compared with these two different urban growth models, the necessity of directing urban policies. It has been emphasized that the link road to be built in the city will trigger urban growth in both models and the importance of the Environmental Plan. Urban growth models should be used for land management and integrated with the policies to be created.