The effect of the indicators considered as risk perception in the behavioral finance perspective on the Istanbul Stock Exchange National 100 Index

The risk appetite, assessed in the scope of the investor sensitivity, dominates the investment preferences of the individuals in the national and international markets. The risk appetite indexes of the developed countries may especially affect the stock exchanges of the developing countries. Accordingly, our study is done in order to analyze the average and volatility spread effects of foreign and local risk indicators with Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST100) and to evaluate the dimension of long- and short-term relationships. Our research consists of four parts and in the first two parts, the theoretical knowledge, included in the literature, is included. Information is given on the indexes, used, in the third part. In the application part, which is the final part, the analyzes were carried out in two stages, covering the period 2009-2018. First, the average volatility spillover effects of Volatility Fear Index (VIX) and Investor Risk Appetite Index (RISE) with the BIST00 is examined. In the second stage, the International VIX Index and the National RISE Index, size of the cointegration relationship with the BIST100 Index, and the existence of short and long run relationships is determined. Our analysis is done via E-views 9 econometric packaged software. As a result of the findings obtained, it is concluded that the changes in the VIX index has an average and volatility spread effects on the return on the BIST100 Index. Along with the cointegration relationship between VIX Index change and BIST100 Index return, it is concluded that there is a long term relationship and a short term relationship, but no causality relationship. On the other hand, it was determined that RISE Index and BIST100 Index are affected by each other and there is a long and short term relationship with the cointegration relationship between the two indices. It is targeted that especially individual and corporate investors are informed within these indices showing the risk appetite levels and have an opinion on the course of markets and exchanges in this study. Within this research, investors, taking into account the risk factors shaping the portfolio; it is important that they consider the changes occurring in the VIX Index and the RISE Index.