Denizde petrol ve rüzgar projelerinin farklı meslekli disiplinler içeren bir çerçeve dahilinde tartışılması ve Monte Carlo metodu ile fizibilite değerlendirmesi

In order to achieve the ultimate goal of accessing abundant, cheap and clean energy for a brighter future for younger generations, investment on offshore energy industry should be considered as a game changer for Turkish Energy policies. Main purpose of this thesis study is to provide necessary background information on different types of offshore energy projects, representation of operational approaches on these projects, offshore structural requirements and considerations related with the operational approaches put forward, development of probabilistic cost and revenue models on represented concepts and application of a cost-revenue based consolidated financial simulation model based on a 10 year quite arbitrary but likely and realistic operational investment scenario. Purpose of application of this arbitrary scenario is to show, if this kind of a projection and will is put forward, what would be the expected results and order of magnitude of the expected monetary earnings and side benefits for the Turkish Energy Industry. Water depth limitation for the operations to be discussed within the scope of this text is 400ft and this comes from the water depth ratings and limitations of column stabilized offshore mobile units, jackup type of platforms. This limit can be considered as the most distinctive boundary between shallow and deep type of offshore construction and upstream development operations in terms of operating principles, required machinery and types of vessels, structural requirements and hydrodynamic nature of the physical problems to deal with. Within the first chapter of this thesis, a brief introduction will be given about the current condition and future predictions of the offshore wind energy industry in Europe. In addition to this, brief information will be given on the extent of natural gas storage market, a general descriptive information will be provided on the marginality considerations of offshore hydrocarbon resources and nature of international offshore hydrocarbon ventures will be discussed. The reason of this quite various portfolio to be brought together and represented under a consolidated scenario comes from the resemblance of the nature of the physical work to be done, similarities within the operational planning, capability of similar installation vessels and fixed steel substructures to be run for these different types of energy projects. In the second chapter, main considerations regarding offshore wind preliminary prospectivity will be discussed and application of these considerations on Turkish seas will be applied. With regards to the limited available information in hand, preliminary categorization of the wind resources will be done and what needs to be done in order to evaluate the potential further will be discussed. Lidars will be discussed as an innovative technology in wind resource assessments and a preliminary resource assessment campaign methodology will be introduced. A reference design of a monopile type of platform equipped with lidar device will be introduced. Wind turbine power output estimation and considerations on selection of an applicable turbine and related substructure requirements will be discussed. A reference type of wind development project will be introduced in order to be incorporated into the financial simulation. Within the third chapter, three different types of upstream offshore projects will be introduced such as a gas storage project, a further development project on a marginal gas field and an arbitrary international offshore development project of the type "buyback contract". Necessary background information will be provided regarding the nature of these projects. In the fourth chapter, offshore sub-structures required in the aforementioned types of offshore projects will be discussed in detail such as wind measurement monopile platform, steel jacket type wind turbine sub-structure, gas storage jacket, modifications on existing jackets and dynamic behavior of these different types of fixed substructures will be evaluated. The natural frequencies and mode shapes of these substructures under environmental loading conditions will be evaluated in order to verify the validity of the reference designs. Within the chapter named "Operational Scenario", workflow of the arbitrary scenario will be demonstrated. Sequence of the operations and estimated costs of the operations will be put forward. Additional information will also be provided regarding the site set up for some of the critical operations provided within the operational scenario and requirements of offshore installation vessels will be discussed. In the sixth chapter, financial simulation methodology, revenue modeling of the previously demonstrated different types of offshore projects, methodology on projection of estimated costs will be introduced and results of the simulations will be tabulated. Finally, within the last chapter named "conclusions and recommendations", the results achieved within this thesis study will be summarized and recommendations will be put forward in order to achieve the ultimate goal of a developed and competitive offshore energy industry.