Deprem sonrası kara yolu ağlarında erişilebilirliğin yol güvenilirliği incelenerek tahmini

In the event of an earthquake, highway network components such as bridges and viaducts may collapse, and the roads may be blocked by debris or landslides, impeding critical response activities. Experts state that both the radiation of seismic waves and the structural properties of highway components are likely to create correlated failures. We represent a risk-prone highway network by an undirected graph whose edges are subject to random failure/survival. With given the marginal survival probabilities, we propose a new link failure dependency model to predict the post-earthquake status of the network. We generate a family of joint probability distributions for the random surviving graph by means of a control parameter with varying level of dependency. We conduct sensitivity analysis on the parameter to understand how the likelihood of possible outcomes changes and compare the proposed dependency model to an existing model in the literature and the independent failure case. We also give a representation of the dependency model using belief networks and show that the probability of any network realization can be computed by the chain rule. Additionally, we examine the dissimilar path generation methods for the selection of the emergency routes between origin and destination points. Using the proposed dependency model and three path generation methods in sampling algorithms, we investigate accessibility and service levels of relief operations in a case study of the İstanbul highway network.