Urban scenario design for natural and cultural values based on urban design and landscape architecture criteria in relation to place and climate in the historic city of derna, libya

This study proposes an integrated spatial planning model for the historical city center of Derna, Libya, based on urban design and landscape architecture criteria under hot desert climate conditions. The research aims to assess the impacts of urbanization, vegetation loss, and increasing surface temperature on the urban microclimate and cultural landscape using a multi-disciplinary approach that combines remote sensing, geographic information systems, modeling, and explainable artificial intelligence. Using Landsat and Sentinel-2 satellite images from 1991 to 2024, key indicators such as Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Surface Urban Heat Island Intensity (SUHII) were derived. In addition, two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) urban morphological indicators—including building density (BD), impervious surface fraction (ISF), building height (BH), building volume density (BVD), and sky view factor (SVF)—were calculated at a 300 m grid scale. Machine learning models with SHAP were used to interpret the most influential variables affecting LST. The findings reveal that higher building volume density and increased impervious surfaces significantly raise LST, whereas NDVI values are negatively correlated with LST. Regions with dense vegetation were found to be 3–4 °C cooler than built-up areas. SHAP results indicated that BVD (47.9%), NDVI (22.8%), and BH (17.4%) were the most influential variables affecting LST. Scenario-based simulations demonstrated that nature-based solutions (e.g., green corridors, permeable surfaces, micro green islands) implemented in pilot areas led to an 18% decrease in LST and a 25% increase in NDVI. The study underscores the importance of integrating cultural and ecological parameters into climate-adaptive design and offers a replicable, data-driven planning framework for historic cities in arid regions.