Natural gas demand forecasting: an application on Erzurum province

Natural gas, which is poor in countries such as Turkey natural gas deposits in the world geography because disintegration is equally dependent on foreign makes. Therefore, it is very important for the economy of the country to use the natural gas both imported and supplied in the country efficiently and to estimate its demand accurately. Therefore, in this study, natural gas consumption amount of Erzurum for December 2018-December 2020 was estimated and the factors affecting the natural gas demand of the households in Erzurum were analyzed by field research method. In order to realize this aim, SARIMA model was established by using Box-Jenkins method and logit model was estimated by using data obtained from 740 questionnaires to households. As a result of this study, total natural gas consumption amount was estimated as 398.970.662 Sm3 in December 2018-December 2020 period. In addition, the number of individuals, annual heating costs and the presence of the exterior of the house have a negative effect on the demand for natural gas, while the square meter of the house and the income of the household have been found to have a positive effect on the demand for natural gas.