Modeling of prevention measures from global financial crisis and forecast of financial crisis in the world

In the study, which aims to model the global financial crisis protection measures and financial crisis prediction in the world; The definition of the financial crisis is included, how it is defined is explained and the theories related to the crisis are mentioned. The causes of the financial crisis are mentioned and the types and scopes of the financial crisis are included. By talking about the financial crises in the world and the crises in Turkey, the models of the crises and how the crises emerged were explained as history. While the measures taken by the countries affected by the economic crises experienced in the historical process were generally mentioned, the measures taken by the countries affected by the crisis to repair their losses after the crisis were explained under the headings of America, European Union countries, Far East countries, Benelux countries and Turkey. It was mentioned how the crises affected the countries and the countries that were most affected and least affected by the crisis. The countries affected by the crisis and less affected by the crisis were discussed and information was given about these countries by selecting the United States, Argentina, Turkey as the most affected countries and Germany and China as the less affected countries. In the study, what was done in the context of the global solution to be less affected by the financial crisis was also examined. In the study, an answer to the question of whether it is possible to foresee the crisis was sought and researches were conducted on this subject. A literature review was conducted and summarized for the studies on crisis prediction models. Crisis models are explained technically and practically. In response to the question of whether it is possible to predict the crisis, technical and applied crisis prediction models are included. Early warning systems that respond to crisis prediction models, the vulnerability of countries and the financial pressure index were mentioned. Selected countries were examined through the fragility indicators tables and comments were made on the vulnerability of the countries. A holistic model has been proposed for countries to foresee the crisis. Again, in order for countries to foresee the crisis, it is proposed that they should determine their holistic models with their own indicators and run the model and foresee the crisis. In practice, a holistic model study was conducted for Turkey by using annual data and the ratio of exports to imports, foreign trade balance/GDP ratio, domestic credit volume, industrial production index, budget balance/GDP ratio and short-term external debt stock/GDP ratio were found to be significant. Under the holistic model, different indicators were found to be meaningful as crisis indicators and it was concluded that these indicators could be used in crisis forecasting. In addition, a financial crisis forecast model study was conducted with the suggestion that it would be more accurate to test the variables that may affect vulnerability by reducing them to a single model. As a result of this study, TL interest-USD interest rate and M2 International Reserve Ratio were found to be significant as crisis indicators, and it was determined that they could be crisis forecasters and the expectation forecast results were calculated. In this study, it is suggested that each country can make a crisis prediction by detecting its own crisis indicators with a holistic perspective and subjecting them to financial crisis forecasting model analysis.