Ebay bilgisayar monitörü marketinde tüketici fazlasının tahmini

In this study, using data from computer monitor auctions on eBay collected in2000, bidding functions are estimated by maximum likelihood using five differentassumptions about the underlying distribution of independent private values. It isassumed that these values come from the logistic, gamma, weibull, pareto andlognormal distributions. Next, consumer surplus in the market for computer monitorsis estimated and its sensitivity to different distributional specifications is tested. Twotypes of consumer surplus estimates are provided. First, ex-post consumer surplusestimates are constructed and then a lower bound for consumer surplus is computedusing a ?rational reassignment? methodology. Median consumer surplus estimatesvary from $39 with the logistic to $143 with the lognormal, or the consumers? shareof surplus from 30% to 61%. Expected consumer surplus estimates indicate a highsensitivity to the distribution specification, especially to the tails of the distribution.Lower bound estimates are more solid and more reliable since they are independentof the tails. Accordingly, these statistics, which do not vary with distribution, yield amedian estimate of $41 and a consumer share of 32%. Finally, the last part of thisstudy examines which distribution best fits the data. Information criteria favor thegamma distribution, tests against the empirical distribution of second and thirdhighest values prefer the logistic distribution.