Analysis of ecenomic growth with selected risk indicators: Evidence from Turkey

Many important factors are related to economic growth, such as health care, food production, average human life, technological developments, and increased household welfare. Therefore, economic growth has been one of the top priorities for countries. Many factors such as trade wars that have been exacerbated in recent years, high debts of countries, Brexit process, Italy's debt situation, USA's slowing economy, trade tension between China and the USA and finally Covid-19 outbreak have increased the global risks and it has affected the economic growth of countries closely. In this study, Turkey's CDS premium with real GDP of Turkey, Turkey Geopolitical Risk Index and tested empirically relations between Turkey Uncertainty Index. The aim of the study is to identify the risk factors associated with economic growth and to reveal the direction and strength of their relations. In order to determine the relationship of these risk indicators with economic growth, the VAR model was applied using the data from 2008Q1 and 2019Q3. As a result of the analysis; Real GDP of Turkey, Turkey CDS premium, long-term relations between Turkey and Turkey Geopolitical Risk Index Uncertainty Index has been determined. Geopolitical risks and CDS premiums Turkey's economic growth provides the direct effects and the indirect effect of uncertainty. Among the risk indicators examined, CDS premiums and geopolitical risks are the factors that affect economic growth the most.