Ekonomik politika belirsizlik endeksinin OECD ülkelerindeki portföy yatırımlarına etkisi

This Ph.D. thesis examines the relationship between the economic policy uncertainty index (EPUI) and portfolio investments (PI) using quarterly data for 20 OECD countries from 2000 to 2022. EPUI is a measure of the level of uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of a particular country. Meanwhile, PI refers to purchasing financial assets in foreign country. Due to data availability, the research sample includes 20 countries out of the 38 OECD member countries. In the econometric model applied, some control variables are included. Based on the presence of cross-sectional dependence between the countries, the second-generation panel unit root test of CIPS is applied to assess the degree of integration for each variable. When some variables are stationary at the level or some at the first difference, panel ARDL can be used to analyze short-run and long-run relationships between variables. The ARDL results confirms the adverse effects of EPUI on PI in the long run. The countries' results also vary in terms of error correction because of their individual economic and political factors. Panel cointegration tests confirm that variables are cointegrated and the causality test confirms that there is not a causality relation between EPUI and PI. The results have implications for investors, policymakers, and researchers, and suggest the need for further comparative analysis among developed and developing economies as well as the inclusion of additional control variables.