With logistic regression determination of the variables explanining the match result in elite woman volleyball and estimation of the bet and probabilities of match winning

Based on the Turkey First Woman Volleyball League data, in this study, new model suggestions are developed for determination of the variables defining the bout results and estimation the effect levels, odds ratio and probabilities of the achivement in the matches.In this study variables are divided into two groups; efficiency and technical elements.For the Efficiency Model variables, Libero Efficiency (LE), Setter Efficiency (PE), Middle Blocker Efficiency (OOE), Opposite (Universal Player) Efficiency (PCE) and Number Four Efficiency (N4E) are taken.For the variables of Technical Elements Model, Serve Score Per Set (SBSAS), Block Score Per Set (SBBAS), Serve Reception Error Per Set (SBTMH), Total Attack Error Per Set (SBTHAS), Missed Serve Score Per Set (SBKSS) are taken into consideration. In this sense, model dependent variable is defined as Match result winner-loser (1-0) and estimated in the logistic regression form of the efficiency model and technical elements model.Research samples include the match data of the top 8 team which gain a right for play-off among the 12 teams in the 2008-2009 Turkey First Woman Volleyball League. Analyses is done from 164 observation (game) regarding total 82 match; 54 Turkey league, 20 play-off, 6 Turkish Cup, 2 champions league.All variables in the Efficiency Model and other variables except from the Missed Serve Score Per Set (SBKSS) in the Technical Elements Model are meaningful for the match result explanation.From the models formed in this study Efficiency Model estimates the match result right with 87.65 percent; Technical Elements Model estimates the match result right with 84.66 percent.Estimated logistic regression models provide opportunity for estimation of the odds regarding winning-losing, odds ratios and probabilities.Key Words: Volleyball, Game Analysis, logistic regression, probability, odds ratio, Efficiency Model, Technical Elements Model.