The importance of disaggregated data on labour market: Beveridge Curve estimating for Turkey

The purpose of this study, structural and cyclical unemployment in labor subgroup in Turkey to investigate Beveridge curve. The contribution of structural problems in the labor force subgroups to the increase in the unemployment rate is also investigated in the study. Although there are many studies investigating at the aggregate level, Beveridge Curve research is scarce at the subgroup level. The research covers the period of 01/2009:04/2018.TÜİK and İŞKUR data were used in the study. In the empirical analysis of the study, the Beveridge curve is estimated using the DOLS method. The u-v space is used to visualize the results. This visualization is in line with international traditions in this field. The main variable used in the analysis is the ratio of unemployed / vacant jobs (u / v). This variable is cyclical and fluctuates in the same direction as GDP. The structural change is measured with a constant parameter and a trend variable indicating a shift in the Beveridge curve over time. According to the findings of the study, the elasticity of the unemployment rate to v / u ratio in male workers, 24-35 and 35+ ages, workers with secondary and high educations subgroups is similar to or higher than the elasticity of the unemployment rate at aggregate level. Elasticity is estimated lower for women, 15-24 age and graduated from a university. According to this finding, the cyclical unemployment rate decreases more slowly in these sub-groups during economic expansion periods. Structural unemployment has increased in Turkey. Similarly, structural unemployment has increased in all subgroups, except for a few subgroups whose share in the labor force was low and decreased. Subgroups with the highest increase in structural unemployment are women and the 24-35 age. These groups are generally the ones whose shares increase in the workforce. Therefore, if labor market policies aimed at reducing structural unemployment are not implemented, structural unemployment may continue to increase in the near future.