The impact of the ageing population on economic growth within the scope of Industry 4.0: A panel data analysis on OECD countries

The aging population worldwide brings different problems to the agenda according to country characteristics. In the aging and demographic transformation of the population, the age group structure of the population changes shape; with the decrease in death and birth rates, life expectancy after birth increases, the share of children and young people in the population decreases, while the share of the elderly in the total population increases.The dependent population that cannot participate in economic activities increases, and as a result, the labor force component also changes. Changes in population structure affect total labor supply, productivity of the old labor force, employment structure, wage incomes, savings, production, consumption, resource allocation and economic growth. Increasing life expectancy and decreasing birth rates are seen as signals that the productive labor force will age. The concept of Industry 4.0 was first mentioned at the Hannover Fair in Germany in 2011, where new policies based on high technology were discussed. Afterwards, it came to the agenda in industrialized countries, especially Japan. Industry 4.0 is seen to affect all systems, especially the economic structure. It has effects on all macro quantities of the economy. An important impact is on "growth" in the context of productivity. After the 2008 Global Economic Crisis, aging and productivity, which are intertwined with technological progress, have a critical impact on the slowdown in global growth, among many other factors. On aging, the issues of life expectancy and population growth, retirement and labor force are back on the agenda. The substitution of labor by technology is increasing. In terms of productivity, it is expected to change the rules of competition in economies. In order to maintain their competitiveness, countries need to be at the forefront of innovation. The main objective of the research is to determine the impact of the use of Industry 4.0 technologies on economic growth, despite the aging population of countries. For this purpose, data on the use of technology and economic growth of selected OECD countries (Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Japan, Korea, Korea, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States) between 2005 and 2021 were analyzed. These countries were selected by taking into account the ranking in the Global Innovation Index 2021 Report, where the innovation competencies of the countries are evaluated and ranked. Using panel data analysis, which allows observations to be made over different time periods and cross-sections, an analysis of the population structure in employment, Industry 4.0 utilization levels and economic growth of the countries was conducted. As a result of the study, it was observed that the ratio of internet and computer users in total employment, total employment in the industrial sector, technology utilization levels, the ratio of employees over the age of 55 to employees under the age of 55 and R&D investments contribute to economic growth in the examined country groups. As a result, based on both the literature and the findings of this study, it is determined that economic growth in countries where Industry 4.0 practices are used intensively is realized despite the aging of the population. Keywords: Industry 4.0, Population, Economic Growth, Population Aging