Short and long term effect of inflation on unemployment in Türkiye

SHORT AND LONG TERM EFFECT OF INFLATION ON UNEMPLOYMENT IN TÜRKİYE This study examines the short- and long-term relationships between unemployment and economic growth, inflation, investment, and population data within the context of Turkey's sample, covering the period from 1988 to 2021 using the ARDL method. The dependent variable, unemployment (UN), is categorized into three groups: total unemployment (UNT), female unemployment (UNF), and male unemployment (UNM). Additionally, it includes 11 age groups with 5-year intervals (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, and 65 and above). Economic growth (G), inflation (INF), investment (INV), and population (POP) are used as independent variables. According to the results of the unit root test, each series meets the condition for the cointegration test. The long-term results show that there is a positive relationship between total unemployment, female unemployment, and male unemployment with economic growth, and a negative relationship with inflation. A generally negative relationship is found between the investment variable and the three unemployment groups, while no significant relationship is observed with population data.