Analysis of potential failure scenarios of the Erzincan Dam through numerical analysis and evaluation of flood effects

This thesis examines potential collapse scenarios and evaluates flood impacts of the Erzincan Dam, built in 1997 for agricultural irrigation in Erzincan province. The dam was chosen for study without any signs or suspicions of potential failure. Precautionary scenarios for dam failure were determined solely theoretically and numerically. Within the study, unmanned aerial vehicles created high-precision digital elevation models covering 1,552.76 hectares. The potential breach in the dam, determined in a trapezoidal shape using the Froehlich (1995) approach, had an average width of 102.35 m, height of 61.92 m, and formation time of 0.35 s. Using the HEC-RAS program, flood hydrographs on the dam axis were obtained based on breach parameters, reservoir area, and volume-surface curves. The peak discharge value in the obtained flood hydrograph reached 12,308.50 m³/s. The Flow 3D software simulated flood effects in 2D and 3D. In the event of dam failure, the highest flow depth in the floodplain was 12.30 m, with a flow velocity of 19 m/s. Computational fluid dynamics analysis results indicated the impact on residential areas, industrial facilities, and agricultural lands. Comparing 2D and 3D analyses, 3D analysis provided more detailed and reliable results. The probability of loss of life was 57 people in 2D analysis and 107 people in 3D analysis.