Evaluating earthquake-related research and innovation under multidimensional risk components: A cross-country data envelopment analysis

This thesis examines earthquake risk, scientific research activity, technological innovation, and post-disaster human and economic impacts using an integrated empirical framework based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), descriptive statistics, and regression methods. The study relies on a multi-source dataset covering the period 2000–2025 and focuses on twelve earthquake-prone countries: China, France, Greece, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, Türkiye, and the United States. These countries account for approximately 78% of global earthquake-related scientific publications and about 47% of reported global earthquake events. The results indicate that post-disaster human and economic losses are primarily driven by earthquake magnitude and frequency. In contrast, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity play a critical role in constraining both scientific publication activity and technological innovation. To assess how effectively countries transform disaster-related risk conditions into earthquake-related scientific outcomes, the study applies a radial, multi-input–multi-output DEA framework using both CCR (constant returns to scale) and BCC (variable returns to scale) models. The findings show that countries with lower disaster-related risk achieve higher efficiency by sustaining comparable levels of scientific output with fewer risk-related inputs. Importantly, disaster-related risk in this context is defined not only by hazard exposure, but also by underlying socio-economic vulnerability, institutional capacity, and the ability to cope with and manage earthquake impacts. Overall, the results highlight the importance of integrated research and innovation policies that go beyond responding to major seismic events and explicitly address vulnerability reduction and coping capacity enhancement in order to improve the efficiency and long-term sustainability of earthquake-related scientific production.