Exploring covert diplomacy: A large-n analysis of negotiations between states and rebel groups

Armed groups seeking political or territorial change have frequently targeted governments, leading to armed conflicts. However, not all of these conflicts are resolved through definitive victories on the battlefield. Consequently, states have increasingly embraced alternative methods to engage with armed groups in pursuit of conflict resolution. Notably intriguing is the frequent use of secret negotiations by democratic governments despite their commitment to transparency. This study investigates the influence of secret negotiations conducted by democratic governments with rebel groups on armed conflict processes, outcomes, and the effectiveness of conflict resolution efforts. Focusing on democracies, this study confronts the puzzle of their covert interactions with armed groups, a perplexing paradox within their otherwise transparent governance. It specifically examines the role of government-appointed negotiators as representatives in shaping the credibility and legitimacy of governments in the eyes of rebel groups. The research argues that the assignment of high-level representatives by governments in the bargaining process significantly contributes to achieving the democracies' primary desire for a state of no violence. These negotiators play a crucial role in establishing trust and enhancing the government's credibility among rebel groups, thereby fostering a conducive environment for conflict resolution. This trust and credibility influence the commitment of rebel groups to the peace process and directly drive he reduction or cessation of rebel violence. On the other hand, the engagement of low-level representatives fails to foster trust, resulting in the continuation 0f violent activities by rebel groups. The study conducts a large_N analysis of a newly collected dataset to test the hypotheses and case analysis to explore the causal mechanisms further. By investigating the influence of representative selection in secret negotiations, this research aims to provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of these negotiations in halting violence.