Determining the effect of climate change on yield and some physiological parameters of wheat varieties with different plant growth models

Climate change affects all sectors in the world and the most vulnerable and most affected sector among these sectors is agricultural production. The agricultural sector, which has the potential to be most affected by precipitation decreases and high temperatures in global climate events, closely feels the severe effects of climate change. The increase in global temperatures has a serious negative impact on agricultural production. Negative effects affect both agricultural producers and agricultural output and show their effects on the national economy. Different plant growth models have the ability to predict the yields of agricultural crops in line with cultivation activities and have been used by researchers in many studies. In this study, four different wheat varieties (Esperia, Altindene, Şehzade, Taner) were used to investigate the changes in plant yield, quality and physiological parameters with limited irrigation practices. During the experiment, climatic data were obtained from the meteorological station in the experiment area and plant water consumption was calculated and the effects of different irrigation treatments and differences between varieties on physiological data were determined. Yield estimates for wheat plants in the coming years were made by considering different Representative Concentration Routes (RCP (4.5 and 8.5) scenarios of IPCC with plant development models (DSSAT and AquaCrop) and three different global climate models (HadGEM, MPI and GFDL). Three different periods (2024-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2098) were taken into account in the simulation made for the future. According to the research results, it was estimated that yields could decrease in all periods regardless of wheat variety in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.