Finansal dolarizasyonun faiz şoku üzerindeki etkileri: Türkiye için yeni Keynesyen DSGE modeli

The aim of this study is to establish a New Keynesian DSGE model with deposit dollarization feature in order to research the effects of dollarization during a plausible shock in the form of interest rate increase in Turkish economy. Section one of this thesis presents the study and gives a background on the DSGE models with dollarization previously used whereas section two presents financial dolarization in Turkiye. Section three presents the model and Section four analyses general equilibrium and steady state conditions of the economy. In section five, calibration of the model is handled. Finally, the results of the analyses are given in section six and section seven concludes the study. With a positive interest rate shock of 1% points given to the worldwide risk-free interest rate quarterly, it is observed that the GDP contracts while employment and with increase with a boost from exports and inflation. Under high dollarization, the effect of the interest rate shock is seen to be mitigated. The result of this study shows that for Turkiye, high deposit dollarization creates a wealth effect that contributes to the total production but on the other hand causes employment rates and real wages to decrease through drop in productivity. High levels of dollarization might imply improvement in total economic growth at the cost of social welfare.