Predictability of financial crises: G20 countries

In the literature, it is observed that the countries are examined cumulatively when we look at the studies examining the crisis periods and trying to predict the leading indicators of the crisis. However, it is thought that the internal dynamics of the countries vary and that countries should have different economic, social and cultural differences. Based on this idea, Kaminsky et al. (1998) and the financial pressure index developed by Edison (2003). Then, in the 24-month crisis window, which was determined at the determined crisis dates, signal indicators were used to identify leading indicators of the crisis. The leading indicators of the countries were determined by examining 14 variables (± 1 variables in some countries) which were determined by using the economic indicators used in the studies in the literature. Countries are divided into some groups considering their level of development, socio-economic status, economic relations and economic history. In addition to this information in our thesis, the countries BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, USA), G8 countries (Australia, Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia , South Africa, South Korea, Turkey), and successful and unsuccessful attack forecasters assessed cumulatively detected in the context of crisis, the G20 countries have been identified. When the countries are considered separately and evaluated cumulatively, the fact that the leading indicators are different shows that the crisis estimators of each country change according to the internal dynamics of the country. The possibility to develop a cumulative signaling system by identifying the common leading indicators for grouping countries and grouping these countries. In addition, it will be shown that the indicators give the first signal a few months before the crisis month and will contribute to the elimination of the negative conditions caused by internal and external delay in policy implementations.