Geopolitics of non-integration: rethinking the rise of military populism in Francophone West Africa

The recent rise of populism and the election of perceived populist leaders in the West have gained significant attention in academic literature. International relations scholars, such as Robert Keohane and John Ikenberry, have questioned the implications of this rise of populist leadership on the liberal international order (LIO), an order cherished globally since the Cold War. However, less focus has been drawn to the recent surge of military coups in West Africa and the emergence of new faces in the region's political trajectory. Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, and Niger have all recently experienced at least one coup d'état in the past three years, with significant public support for these undemocratic seizures of power. This study thus seeks to explore the root cause of these coups by addressing the fundamental question: Why have military coups (military populism) been on the rise in Francophone West Africa? The study addresses this question by establishing a link between its dependent variable, the increase in military populism, and its independent variable, mistrust in the LIO. Researchers who have studied coup cases in West Africa have generally focused on domestic variables, including leadership styles and socioeconomic challenges, as the principal causes of these actions. While recognizing the importance of these domestic variables, this study argues that the recent West African coups are intertwined with the global rise of populism, motivated partly by escalating anti- institutional sentiment and growing mistrust in the liberal international order.