Landslide hazard assessment of the region between Güzelyalı-Lapseki (Çanakkale)

In the scope of this thesis, it is aimed to make a landslide hazard assessment of the region between Güzelyalı and Lapseki (Çanakkale). With field studies, 75 landslides were mapped and a landslide inventory was created by recording the observations of these landslides. Slope, aspect, land use, topographic elevation, normalized vegetation index (NDVI), distance to streams, topographic wetness index and lithology parameters were used to produce landslide susceptibility maps. Landslide susceptibility maps were produced by Frequency Ratio (FR), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Logistic Regression (LR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forest Algorithms (RF) methods. AUC values for the susceptibility maps produced; It was calculated as 0,920 for FO, 0,893 for AHP, 0,925 for LR, 0,944 for ANN, 0,937 for SVM and 0,950 for RF. Spatial, temporal and dimensional for landslide hazard assessment of the study area probability calculations were made. By using the Gumbel distribution for temporal probability, the probability of exceeding the threshold precipitation value determined as the triggering factor for 1, 5, 10, 25 and 50-year times was calculated. The calculated probability values are respectively; 0,453, 0,701, 0,951, 0,997. Calculations were made on the probability density plot corresponding to the landslide area classes for the dimensional probability. Landslides for hazard assessment; Those larger than 0.1 km2 are classified as small, those larger than 0.35 km2 are classified as medium and those larger than 1 km2 are classified as large and their probability values are respectively; It was calculated as 0,701, 0,361, 0,184. After the probability calculations were completed, hazard maps were produced showing the probabilities of the landslides of the study area, defined as small, medium and large size, to occur in 1, 5, 10, 25 and 50 years. In the last stage of the thesis, a landslide size density map was produced by using the areal values of the landslides. By using the landslide size density map, landslide susceptibility map and threshold precipitation probability values calculated for 1, 5, 10, 25, and 50-year time intervals, landslide hazard density maps corresponding to these time periods were produced.